There’s growing concern that the deadly coronavirus sweeping the globe might force the first cancellation of an Olympic Games since World War Two. The International Olympic Committee and host nation Japan are holding the line that the Tokyo Games will begin as planned on July 24. But the risks of bringing hundreds of thousands of athletes, officials and spectators together in one city for the world’s biggest multisports event are growing ever more apparent after the coronavirus was declared a pandemic.
1. Could the Olympics be called off?
It’s happened before. Canceling the Tokyo Games is the least appealing option for organizers, competitors and sponsors, but could come about if the virus showed no sign of abating. It would be the first scrapping of an Olympics for a reason other than World War: The Summer Games were canceled in 1916, 1940 and 1944 as were the Winter Games in 1940 and 1944. Japan has spent an estimated $26 billion to ready Tokyo and cancelation could knock about 1.4% from GDP, Nikko Securities Inc. Chief Economist Junichi Makino wrote in a research note. A large part of the economic stimulus may have already been delivered by the massive infrastructure spending laid out to get Tokyo ready for the Games.
2. Are there other options?
Several, such as going ahead but banning spectators. The World Health Organization and sports federations have discussed the possibility, the New York Times reported. The Tokyo Olympic Committee said it has already sold 4.48 million of its initial 7.8 million tickets to residents of Japan. Keeping fans out in this way has never happened at an Olympics, but multiple major sporting events -- from European soccer leagues to Japan’s sumo wrestling -- have in recent weeks gone ahead “behind closed doors.”
3. How would an Olympics look without fans?
Strange. While viewers would get to watch the action, some athletes who have played in empty venues said the silence deflates their competitive spirit. It remains to be seen whether viewers would find it off-putting, a huge concern for media groups such as U.S. network NBC, which has already sold $1.25 billion in ads, more than at any other Games. it’s covered. Just a few months ago, Japan showed it can fill stadiums for major sporting events when it hosted the 2019 Rugby World Cup, which saw a record 99.3% attendance with 1.84 million tickets sold. But in-person fans are a diminishing source of revenue. When Atlanta hosted the 1996 Summer Games, tickets accounted for 25% of the budget. In Tokyo, they are half that.
4. Could the Games be moved?
Highly unlikely, since there are few major cities, if any, free of risk from the virus. And even if a willing host were found, the bill to ready venues, security and medical infrastructure would be astronomical, and the logistical challenge overwhelming. The host committee has already sold some $3.3 billion in sponsorships to local companies. (Remember too that the Paralympics are held a month after the Olympics in the same host city.) It has happened before, but there was ample time for a handover and that was for a smaller-scale Winter Olympics: The 1976 Games were moved to Innsbruck, Austria from Denver, Colorado after locals protested spiraling costs.
5. What about postponing the Games?
This would probably be the best option if the Games can’t be held as planned in July and a spectator-free event is unfeasible. The July start had raised worries about the summer heat in Tokyo and prompted the IOC to move the marathon and race walking events to the less balmy northern city of Sapporo. The last time Tokyo hosted in 1964, the Games were in the cooler month of October. One senior Japanese official told the Wall Street Journal that a delay of one to two years would be most realistic. That would raise the possibility that athletes who qualified for 2020 may not make the cut for the rearranged event.
Source: Bloomberg